How to Deal With Dissonant Information

People who believe in forecasts, they don't want to see their belief blown up. Since forecasts are rarely both correct and profitable, you're better off dong without them than relying on ones that are potentially very wrong. It's not what you don't know that gets you into trouble; it's what you know for certain that just ain't true. If it's highly uncertain and views are unlikely to be correct, then it's better to say, i don't know than it is to boldly say, i know and act on that expectation and be wrong.