Quantitative versus qualitative thesis

Christian Olesen of Olesen Value Funds discusses the opportunities in UK homebuilders. The discussion centers on why the UK equity market remains deeply out of favor and how this pessimism has created compelling value in residential developers. Christian outlines the cyclical dynamics driving depressed demand, explains why Bellway stands out among peers, and explores balance sheet strength, land valuation, and downside protection. The conversation also addresses macro concerns around the UK economy, housing affordability, planning regulations, and management incentives. __________________________________________________________

[00:00:00] Episode and guest introduction

[00:03:26] UK market deeply discounted

[00:05:13] Cyclical demand collapse explained

[00:08:20] Bellway valuation framework

[00:11:47] UK macro risk debate

[00:15:09] Domestic investor pessimism

[00:17:37] Quantitative versus qualitative thesis

[00:21:15] Land write-down risk discussion

[00:26:58] Bellway versus peers

[00:30:41] Management incentives concerns

[00:32:43] Capital allocation changes

[00:38:53] American investor influence

[00:41:08] Alternatives within UK market

[00:45:23] Planning reform tailwinds

[00:46:58] Supply constraints implications

[00:49:35] Risk-reward summary

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