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Prediction Market FAQ

Astral Codex Ten Podcast

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Why All Prediction Markets Are Canonical?

In every known head-to-head field comparison between speculative markets and other forward-looking institutions, the speculative markets have been at least as accurate. Prediction markets turn claims about truth into financial instruments in a way which forces everybody everywhere to agree on how likely the claim is to be true. You should trust a prediction market above your own opinion when you're not sure which of many competing experts to trust.

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