Conclusion: Payback, Inventories, and Risk Assets

December begins with a decided risk-off mood in financial markets, led by more painful liquidations in crypto. Bitcoin starts off the month with a nearly 7% drop to what would be a new recent low. Why? Economic woes continue to dominate concerns. Starting with Chicago, ISM’s regional business barometer put up its largest single month decline in new orders in more than two years. Backlogs crashed by nearly 22 points to the lowest since March 2009. Its employment index fell to the worst since May 2009, with not a single respondent saying it had increased employment last month. 

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ISM Chicago Business Barometer November 2025
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1N7xXT_P4Z_g7u0dJYI_kOYkSk1fcvLcQ/view

ISM Manufacturing November 2025
https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-pmi-reports/pmi/november/

S&P Global Press Releases
https://www.pmi.spglobal.com/public/release/pressreleases

Bloomberg Small Businesses Turn to Lending Startups as Tariff Costs Mount
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-09-15/tariffs-drive-small-importers-to-costly-loans-as-lending-startups-surge

Bloomberg First Brands’ Blowup Puts Trade Finance in Spotlight
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2025-10-19/first-brands-blowup-puts-trade-finance-in-spotlight-jnj-jpm-ubs-jef

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