
Behind the Memo: The Illusion of Knowledge
The Memo by Howard Marks
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How to Get Into Big Trouble
I just think that it's not possible to bet on those kinds of things without facing a substantial possibility that you're wrong. Who are the famous mackro investors? Where are the great famous economic forecasters? I don't think they exist, for the most part. And if not, then doesn't that tell you that this can't be done? There's hedge funds. You look at the last ten years, as i recall, yesan peas up about 13 % a year, and the average hedge funds up five % a year. So no reduction in volatility is worth giving up 80% of the return. The average mackerel fund has a return which is about a fifth
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