Kessler Effect and Long‑Term Risk

In this episode of the Crazy Wisdom Podcast, host Stewart Alsop speaks with Aaron Borger, founder and CEO of Orbital Robotics, about the emerging world of space robotics and satellite capture technology. The conversation covers a fascinating range of topics including Borger's early experience launching AI-controlled robotic arms to space as a student, his work at Blue Origin developing lunar lander software, and how his company is developing robots that can capture other spacecraft for refueling, repair, and debris removal. They discuss the technical challenges of operating in space - from radiation hardening electronics to dealing with tumbling satellites - as well as the broader implications for the space economy, from preventing the Kessler effect to building space-based recycling facilities and mining lunar ice for rocket fuel. You can find more about Aaron Borger’s work at Orbital Robots and follow him on LinkedIn for updates on upcoming missions and demos. 

Check out this GPT we trained on the conversation

Timestamps

00:00 Introduction to orbital robotics, satellite capture, and why sensing and perception matter in space
05:00 The Kessler Effect, cascading collisions, and why space debris is an economic problem before it is an existential one
10:00 From debris removal to orbital recycling and the idea of turning junk into infrastructure
15:00 Long-term vision of space factories, lunar ice, and refueling satellites to bootstrap a lunar economy
20:00 Satellite upgrading, servicing live spacecraft, and expanding today’s narrow space economy
25:00 Costs of collision avoidance, ISS maneuvers, and making debris capture economically viable
30:00 Early experiments with AI-controlled robotic arms, suborbital launches, and reinforcement learning in microgravity
35:00 Why deterministic AI and provable safety matter more than LLM hype for spacecraft control
40:00 Radiation, single event upsets, and designing space-safe AI systems with bounded behavior
45:00 AI, physics-based world models, and autonomy as the key to scaling space operations
50:00 Manufacturing constraints, space supply chains, and lessons from rocket engine software
55:00 The future of space startups, geopolitics, deterrence, and keeping space usable for humanity

Key Insights

1. Space Debris Removal as a Growing Economic Opportunity: Aaron Borger explains that orbital debris is becoming a critical problem with approximately 3,000-4,000 defunct satellites among the 15,000 total satellites in orbit. The company is developing robotic arms and AI-controlled spacecraft to capture other satellites for refueling, repair, debris removal, and even space station assembly. The economic case is compelling - it costs about $1 million for the ISS to maneuver around debris, so if their spacecraft can capture and remove multiple pieces of debris for less than that cost per piece, it becomes financially viable while addressing the growing space junk problem.
2. Revolutionary AI Safety Methods Enable Space Robotics: Traditional NASA engineers have been reluctant to use AI for spacecraft control due to safety concerns, but Orbital Robotics has developed breakthrough methods combining reinforcement learning with traditional control systems that can mathematically prove the AI will behave safely. Their approach uses physics-based world models rather than pure data-driven learning, ensuring deterministic behavior and bounded operations. This represents a significant advancement over previous AI approaches that couldn't guarantee safe operation in the high-stakes environment of space.
3. Vision for Space-Based Manufacturing and Resource Utilization: The long-term vision extends beyond debris removal to creating orbital recycling facilities that can break down captured satellites and rebuild them into new spacecraft using existing materials in orbit. Additionally, the company plans to harvest propellant from lunar ice, splitting it into hydrogen and oxygen for rocket fuel, which could kickstart a lunar economy by providing economic incentives for moon-based operations while supporting the growing satellite constellation infrastructure.
4. Unique Space Technology Development Through Student Programs: Borger and his co-founder gained unprecedented experience by launching six AI-controlled robotic arms to space through NASA's student rocket programs while still undergraduates. These missions involved throwing and catching objects in microgravity using deep reinforcement learning trained in simulation and tested on Earth. This hands-on space experience is extremely rare and gave them practical knowledge that informed their current commercial venture.
5. Hardware Challenges Require Innovative Engineering Solutions: Space presents unique technical challenges including radiation-induced single event upsets that can reset processors for up to 10 seconds, requiring "passive safe" trajectories that won't cause collisions even during system resets. Unlike traditional space companies that spend $100,000 on radiation-hardened processors, Orbital Robotics uses automotive-grade components made radiation-tolerant through smart software and electrical design, enabling cost-effective operations while maintaining safety.
6. Space Manufacturing Supply Chain Constraints: The space industry faces significant manufacturing bottlenecks with 24-week lead times for space-grade components and limited suppliers serving multiple companies simultaneously. This creates challenges for scaling production - Orbital Robotics needs to manufacture 30 robotic arms per year within a few years. They've partnered with manufacturers who previously worked on Blue Origin's rocket engines to address these supply chain limitations and achieve the scale necessary for their ambitious deployment timeline.
7. Emerging Space Economy Beyond Communications: While current commercial space activities focus primarily on communications satellites (with SpaceX Starlink holding 60% market share) and Earth observation, new sectors are emerging including AI data centers in space and orbital manufacturing. The convergence of AI, robotics, and space technology is enabling more sophisticated autonomous operations, from predictive maintenance of rocket engines using sensor data to complex orbital maneuvering and satellite servicing that was previously impossible with traditional control methods.