Navigating Decision-Making: Bayesian Insights

This chapter examines the interplay between decision-making in scientific research and social influences, focusing on Bayesian probability and personal experiences. It highlights the role of diverse perspectives and contextual framing in shaping our understanding and rationality.

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This week we’re joined by Anna Riedl, a Global Shaper at the World Economic Forum and organizer at Effective Altruism Austria, currently studying Cognitive Science at Universität Wien. We discuss behavioral economics, bounded rationality, computational rationality, and other formal ways of thinking about how to do the most good, given great uncertainty about most things. We ask whether “cognitive biases” are really fairly understood as biases when they’re the result of a rational learning process, we explore links to the quantified self, and we advocate for epistemic humility — and the need, no matter our incomplete understanding, to nonetheless still Do Something…

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