Momentum trading and reversal risks

John Rubino, [Substack https://rubino.substack.com/ ], joins me for another nuanced discussion around the fundamental drivers, macro catalysts, and technical momentum factors that are driving silver and the precious metals stocks higher in 2025.   We also review trading strategies and the potential for valuation reratings to even higher levels in PM equities, despite the big moves higher already seen this year.  Will the silver price keep moving higher in a catchup trade to incentivize new production or development, or could we instead see a sharp pricing correction in the near future?

• We start off reviewing silver’s continued breakout up above $66 on both the spot and futures charts, as we spoke on Wednesday morning.
• John outlines that there may be a few different types of super whale investors underpinning the silver price, from sovereign governments and select central banks, to large institutions that have been underweight the sector, and even manufacturers trying to secure larger supply inventories to front-run potentially higher longer-term prices.
• We review the slightly different monetary drivers for gold versus silver’s industrial component, but then discuss it is really the large investment demand that is flowing into the whole sector via metals, ETFs, and individual equities which is moving the pricing up in the most dramatic legs higher.
• Next we consider how much technical pricing momentum may be fueling more speculation where buying simply begets more buying.
• While most market participants recognize that there will be strong record Q4 earnings for gold and silver producers, the spread between Q3 and Q4 average metals prices is so vast that it raises the question of whether the market is truly looking forward enough and properly factoring that into current company valuations.
• We highlight the disparity between where gold and silver prices have run to and the comparatively low value that ounces in the ground are receiving inside of the PM developers.
• We discuss how merger & acquisitions may shift to larger takeover premiums and higher prices for ounces in the ground, if the available assets and companies keep getting picked off the board.
• Wrapping up, we broaden out the discussion into the strength being seen across the whole metals complex, from copper, platinum, and palladium, to zinc, antimony, tungsten, rare earths, lithium, and uranium throughout 2025. John believes that we are entering an environment where the world is waking up to the importance of supply chains and raw materials, which is going to lead to a continued commodities supercycle.

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