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How The War In Ukraine Could Go Nuclear
FiveThirtyEight Politics
Putin - 20% Chance of Using Nuclear Weapons if Ukraine Attacks Crimea
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If Ukrainian forces enter Crimea it's overwhelmingly likely that it's as part of an effort to take back Crimea. In that case you have to ask yourself watch the probability that Putin assesses that the Ukrainian offensive will be effective. If Russia uses nuclear weapons over Crimea it's likely to be before Ukraine captures large amounts of territory rather than at the end of the Ukrainian operation to recapture Crimea so I would also make the forecast here.
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