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Michael Howell: Can The Fed Keep Raising Rates During A Banking Crisis? | Michael Howell
Forward Guidance
Is the Yield Curve a Predictor of a Recession?
Two year and the Fed funds rate, which typically walk hand in hand, that two year has now dipped well below where Fed funds is. The problem that you've got this time, this particular cycle, is that term premier are very negative. There's a big bias in the curve because of term premium. And that means that I think that the yield curve is not necessarily a pure indicator of recession risk right now.
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