Michael Howell, CEO of CrossBorder Capital, an investment advisory firm, and author of the book, “Capital Wars: The Rise Of Global Liquidity,” returns to The Julia La Roche for episode 161 to discuss the global liquidity cycle and its impact on the economy.
He explains that liquidity is a key driver of asset prices and that the current liquidity cycle is pushing asset prices higher. Howell argues that the focus on interest rates and policy rates is misplaced, and that the long-term rate and liquidity are more important factors. He also highlights the importance of liquidity in the refinancing of debt and warns of the risks of a liquidity shortage. Howell suggests that investors should consider assets like gold, cryptocurrencies, and solid companies on Wall Street as hedges against monetary inflation.
Links:
Website: http://www.crossbordercapital.com/
Twitter: https://twitter.com/crossbordercap
Substack: https://capitalwars.substack.com/
Book: https://www.amazon.com/Capital-Wars-Rise-Global-Liquidity/dp/3030392902
Takeaways
- Liquidity is a key driver of asset prices and the current liquidity cycle is pushing asset prices higher.
- The focus on interest rates and policy rates is misplaced; the long-term rate and liquidity are more important factors.
- A shortage of liquidity can lead to banking and refinancing crises.
- Investors should consider assets like gold, cryptocurrencies, and solid companies on Wall Street as hedges against monetary inflation.
Timestamps:
00:00 Introduction
1:38 Macro view + liquidity cycle
3:07 Interest rates
6:10 What really matters is the integrity of the US Treasury market
07:47 Hedging Against Monetary Inflation
9:16 Gold
11:56 US public debt
15:15 Monetizing the debt
18:06 Gold is the pole star in the financial system
20:40 US dollar
26:29 Inverted yield curve
31:37 Conclusion and parting thoughts
