Oil & Gas: Underinvestment and Supply Risk

Stijn Schmitz welcomes Adrian Day to the show. Adrian Day is CEO of Adrian Day Asset Management & Manager of EuroPacific Gold Fund. In this in-depth conversation about precious metals and commodities, Day provides a comprehensive analysis of the current gold and broader investment landscape. Day remains highly bullish on gold, arguing that all fundamental drivers supporting gold’s recent rise remain intact. He highlights central bank purchasing, currency debasement concerns, and potential future Federal Reserve policies as key factors. While acknowledging gold’s recent price movements, he believes the market is far from reaching its peak and anticipates significant potential for further appreciation.

Discussing the generalist investor market, Day notes that North American investors have historically maintained low gold allocations, typically around 2%. He suggests that as economic conditions become more favorable—including lower interest rates, weakening dollar, and increased market volatility—more generalist investors may enter the gold market. Regarding commodities, Day provides nuanced insights into potential investment cycles. He cautions against broadly labeling current trends a “super-cycle” but believes most commodity complexes are undervalued relative to financial assets. He emphasizes the importance of differentiating between individual commodities and focusing on sectors with potential supply constraints, specifically highlighting copper, uranium, and oil as promising areas.

Day also discusses gold mining stocks, arguing that despite recent price increases, many large mining companies remain attractively valued. He sees significant potential in mid-tier miners and believes valuations remain compelling, particularly as gold reserves are revalued at higher prices. On broader economic trends, Day discusses the gradual shift away from dollar dominance, noting that while the US dollar remains central to global trade, its proportion of global reserves and trade settlements is declining. He anticipates this trend could incrementally benefit gold as an alternative asset.

Timestamps:
00:00:00 – Introduction
00:01:15 – Bullish Case for Gold
00:03:49 – Gold Pullback Analysis
00:09:57 – Generalist Investors Shift
00:16:18 – Currency Debasement Trade
00:19:31 – Remonetization Thesis Discussion
00:22:32 – Silver Price Surge Drivers
00:31:22 – Valuing Gold Miners
00:35:32 – Mid-Tier Miners Potential
00:38:02 – M&A and Financing Health
00:40:10 – Commodity Super-Cycle Tease
00:47:36 – Oil and Gas Dynamics
00:51:15 – Concluding Thoughts

Guest Links:
Website: https://adrianday.com/

Adrian Day is considered a pioneer in promoting the benefits of global investing in the United Kingdom. A native of London, after graduating with honors from the London School of Economics, Mr. Day spent many years as a financial investment writer, where he gained a large following for his expertise in searching out unusual investment opportunities around the world. He has also authored two books on the subject of global investing: International Investment Opportunities: How and Where to Invest Overseas Successfully and Investing Without Borders. His latest book, widely praised by readers, is Investing in Resources: How to Profit from the Outsized Potential and Avoid the Risks (Wiley, 2010). Mr. Day is a recognized authority in both global and resource investing. He is frequently interviewed by the press, domestically and abroad. He is a popular speaker and is frequently invited to lecture at financial conferences and seminars around the world. His pleasures include fine dining, reading (especially history), and the opera.