Navigating Political Dynamics

On this episode Prime Minister Justin Trudeau joins Nate to discuss the next election, successes and failures in governing, and what comes next.

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Transcript:

Nate: Welcome to Uncommons. I'm Nate Erskine-Smith, and on this episode I'm joined by Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, and you should know at the outset there were no pre-approved questions. Now, before we get to that conversation, two quick public service announcements. We've started these weekly update videos of the week that was in Parliament. We of course call it Uncommons Weekly, and you can check it out on our social media @beynate.

The second thing is, do me a favor. If you like what we're doing, go to your platform of choice and leave us a positive review because it does help us reach a wider, greater audience. And I could do a big preamble, but you know who the Prime Minister is. So let's jump to the conversation.

The Importance of Conversations in Politics

Nate: Justin, thanks for joining me.

Justin: Oh, so good to be here Nate.

Nate: I was laughing. So, you, in the same week, you're looking at your itinerary and you're doing the Colbert show, and then you're looking, you're going “Oh, and I'm doing Uncommons with Nate. What is – what is happening? How did these two end up on my schedule the same week?”

Justin: Yeah. You know, it's actually, it's actually just right, because a big part of what I've been trying to do is have as many different conversations in different places about, about the challenges we're all facing, because one of the things we learn and we've learned over the past years is, if we don't go to where people are, then people aren't listening. It's not like I can give a speech on the steps of Parliament and know that most Canadians will have tuned in to the speech, through the nightly news or through – no.

Nate: Five people are really fantastic.

Justin: Well, and it's great that they're then, I'm happy to give speeches for them. But if I don't start, if we don't start making, you know, space for real conversations that actually do filter through everything that people are either bombarded with or just busy doing in their lives, then we're not doing right in terms of either representing or serving people.

Nate: So for those who are regular listeners, they know a bit of my background. But for those who may be tuning in the first time, because we've got you joining us, this is a Liberal MP’s podcast, but, you and I have not always seen eye to eye. And I get asked all the time, well, what's your relationship like with the Prime Minister, thinking that there's some, you know, animosity that’s between us.

How would you describe our relationship to sort of set the stage for this?

Justin: Well, when people ask me “So, how do you put up with Nate?” I actually laugh because you're actually one of the MPs that I have a better type of conversation with than many others. 

And we have all, and we've had some, some pretty important conversations over the years or at least crunchy conversations over the years. But I've always thoroughly enjoyed it. And for me, it's a feature, not a bug, that I have thoughtful MPs who come at this with, you know, ways of challenging me with strongly felt beliefs, with points where we will diverge on things. 

And as long as I can have, as we have always had, and perhaps better than many others who are sometimes more divergent in their perspectives, as long as we can have really good conversations where you understand where I'm coming from and I understand where you're coming from, then there is, I mean, that's almost the way democracy writ large is supposed to work. As you know, people come together to vote on, you know, what direction the country's going to take. If we can't have these conversations, then, then nothing else is working in democracy.

Reflections on Leadership and Governance

Nate: Yeah. And a reasonable disagreement is, I think, central to not only our politics writ large, but also to the Liberal Party as, as I hope many of us see it. But when you think of, the Liberal Party, when you think of, you know, you've got, I will never be an anonymous MP in the media, I think it's cowardly, but you've got any number of colleagues who are now speaking out in, less than helpful ways, if I'm putting it more politely. 

You've got others who are going on record and raising concerns, and the concerns are mixed. Sometimes it's about direction, sometimes it is about you and, and they try to cast it as it's not about, you know, fair or unfair criticism, but you know how people feel. When you look at it, you know, you're in this for nine years. And I want to start with a bigger sort of question of why. You articulated the need for serious change heading into 2015. Many people like me left this, got off the sidelines to participate, because of that call to do things differently, when you think of what's to come next, you've got anonymous MPs raising complaints. You've got people who are, who are, frustrated for this reason or that reason. 

Governing wears on governments. Why do you want to do this again?

Justin: It's interesting that you go back to 2015, right. And that, the why we did this, because first of all, there were a lot of people, you know, telling us that we were wrong, that I was doing things the wrong way, that I wasn't, I wasn't, you know, tackling the right things the right way. There was a lot of skepticism about what that was.

And it was an opportunity to actually give Canadians a choice that I think was absolutely necessary for the country to say, okay, we've got to double down on fighting climate change and growing the economy at the same time. We got to step up in supporting the most vulnerable. We got to move forward on reconciliation. We got to, we got to figure out how we navigate through a much more challenging world that has impacts on us.

Those are all things that the Harper government wasn't doing, and those were all the things that drove me to saying, “Yeah, Canadians need that choice to be able to make,” well, that's sort of the same choice they're going to make in the next election. Choice whether you’re moving forward on the fight against climate change or whether we just basically throw up our hands and go back to leaning heavily on fossil fuels with the kind of short term thinking that is going to end up being so costly for Canadians just a few years down the road, not just with, with the, the, the costs of climate impacts and wildfires, but also, with the missed opportunities to participate in where the global economy is going. That question of, okay, at this time of backlash against progressive policies of inclusion and diversity, you know, are we going to double down on making sure that everyone gets to participate, or are we going to continue to drive wedges into people and, and, you know, group Canadians into, into subgroups that are angry at each other?

I think all those questions are just as important now, if not even more important, because back in the run up to 2015, I think everyone got a sense of, okay, yeah, we just need to find an alternative to Stephen Harper and whether it's Mulcair or whether it's Trudeau, the winds were turning in that sense. Yeah, this is going to be harder on a lot of levels, because it's, it's, a time where people are frustrated.

But the choice to make a deliberate choice to say, no, we're going to continue and even double down on the things we know are going to get us better, which is more protection of the environment, more inclusion of people, more understanding how you have to build the economy from the bottom up, from the center out, instead of from the top down, which Poilievre is still proposing. Like, this is going to be a much harder election in 2015. It always was going to be.

Nate: Set up, but set up that choice. So I agree, I want to protect the progress. Right. So we, leading into 2015, there were over 100 communities without clean water, Indigenous communities. And there's imperfect progress, unquestionably imperfect progress, that there's still communities. It's still a failure of any community that doesn't have clean water, but we have massive progress. Over 80% of those advisories have been lifted, any new advisory that's come on has been treated with seriousness. There's water projects in most communities already underway, and many short term advisories have been addressed as well to avoid them becoming long term advisories. So I care about progress on climate change. We're finally bending the curve on emissions, there's a comprehensive, serious climate plan.

We can fight pricing pollution. We should defend pricing pollution. But it's about much more than that. you look at poverty reduction, you look at addressing the opioid crisis. I run down the list of issues and I care about protecting that progress. Now, I'm gonna, you know, if you're speaking to, a Canadian who's sitting at home and saying, yeah, I agree, I don't, I don't want Pierre Poilievre.

I don't, I don't want to move in that direction, but we, we need to protect that progress, and we need to put our best foot forward. And you’ve probably had some reflections, because I'm sure this is not the first time someone said, well, look at what's happening south of the border. Obviously your brain didn't melt on national television the way the Biden’s did, but, Kamala has obviously put that party in a better position to win, although still a struggle, but a better position to win.

Why do you think when you take a step outside of yourself and look and say, I still think I'm the best person to, to fight that fight?

Justin: Well, first of all, let's, let's look at, you know, people who are saying, oh, I'm not sure. Would they be saying that if I was ten points ahead in the polls right now?

Nate: No.

Justin: Right. I mean, are there a lot of Liberals who who are thinking, that, you know, Justin's priorities aren't in the right place or Justin doesn't have the fight in him, or Justin, you know, is wrong to be continuing to believe in protecting the environment and growing the economy and protecting women's rights and stuff. In terms of the substance of what we're doing, I think that's pretty much the fight.

There's a question on whether or not, I still have the drive, the fight or the ability to win this fight. And I sort of say that that's obviously a question that I have to ask as well. Do I still have the drive to do this?

Nate: You’ve got the drive, I'm not, I'm not, I'm not dismissive of that.

Justin: And do I still have the- okay, but do I still have the understanding of what this is going to take to win the next election? Yeah, absolutely. Better than just about anyone else, because I have been fighting through crises and fighting against Conservative opponents who are trying to undo this and bring Canadians, you know, backwards, and polarize them.

Like, I know exactly how hard this fight is going to be. And I also know that I am absolutely roaring to go, because this kind of fight that is so fundamental to, you know, how Canadians come out or come through what have been really, really difficult years, I think, is exactly why I got into politics to make sure that we are delivering the absolute best future for Canadians.

Poilievre and Choices Within the Upcoming Election

Justin: And I think one of the interesting questions that, even as people ask me why I want to do this all the time, nobody's asking Poilievre why he wants to do this, what is it that he is being driven to fight for? We know what he's fighting against, what is he fighting for? And he hasn't even come, and we've been watching him and debating him, and trying to counter him for years now, 20 years in the House, he's been we know what he's been all about fighting against. He hasn't even begun to articulate what he's fighting for. And I think and I'm happy for people to be asking me the question as you are, I think more Canadians need to be asking Poilievre who and what he's fighting for, other than himself and his desire to be in power.

Nate: I mean, there is, obviously in that choice, the choice matters, it's not just a referendum on you. I've told the story before, but there is, senior in a legion in Sioux Lookout who said, you know, I don't like your boss, too much spending, too many apologies. But I know what I'm getting with Justin. I don't know what I'm getting with the other guy. And I'm still going to vote for you. 

And so there is a bit of, there is a choice there that really matters. I mean, he's obviously walking away from some of that 20 year record. He's got a 20 year record of anti-labor advocacy, and now he's trying to, you know, more boots, less suits, and he's wearing- wearing a suit while he says it, but regardless, he's he's trying to, you know, win over labor in the Monty McNaughton kind of style. Whether that works or not is an open question. But he does articulate, relentlessly to the point that it's now seared in my brain, the “axe the tax”, “build the homes”, “fix the budget”, “stop the crime”.

And, you know, I want to build the homes, too. And I don't think his plan stacks up particularly well as against our more recent ones, certainly. Axe the tax is a silly slogan and belies the fact he doesn't have a plan on climate change. And the carbon rebate makes most people better off. And we can run down the list. I'm less interested in, for the purpose of this, at least combating that absurdity, however you want to frame his, his arguments. 

But for you, you know, I've said this to you before, I think I said it in January. I said it again more recently. But when your father ran that final time, he articulated five things that mattered to him that he wanted his final term to be about. And it was international peace, it was economy, energy, fighting Quebec sovereignty and delivering the charter. Whatever one thinks of his success, obviously the charter got delivered and that is part of who we are as Canadians and and rightly so. How would you articulate the two, three, four – what do you want to see through in your final term?

Justin: Even before we get into that, though, I think in your very first story, there was something really, really telling in that, you know, someone may disagree with me on this or that and the other things, but they know. They know the frame that I'm working from. They know what drives me. They know what matters to me.

And that is not something to simply shrug off, because what we've seen over the past number of years is crises that nobody ran on. Nobody asked me in 2019 how I was going to handle an eventual pandemic that was going to hit the next year. Nobody talks about, well, how would you react if Russia were to invade Ukraine.

Whatever this next election is going to be about, I think the pattern of crises that we've hit, whether they've been economic or military or geopolitical or health, have not been something that was on the ballot or even discussed in the debate. And that idea of knowing someone's values, knowing the frame with which they approach challenges is not just important, it's ultimately sort of the only thing when you are picking your representatives, whether it's, picking you to, to, to represent them, in Beaches-East York, or, whether it's picking a prime minister, having confidence that the person both sees you and is going to make decisions with you in mind that align with what you are most preoccupied about is what democracies and elections are supposed to be all about. And often we get pulled away from that. So for me, you ask me about the things that drive me more than anything else right now is understanding that we are in a moment in this world where everything's changing. People are saying, oh, it's going to be a change election.

Yeah, it's going to be a change election. Everything is change. Not just climate change, but the way we work, the way AI works, the way, the way the geopolitics happens, the pressures on everything. The world is in a massive pivot moment right now, and we don't know what the biggest issue is going to be. For the past year and a half, Poilievre has been screaming his head off about, you know, inflation, and it's all my fault on inflation. Well, inflation is now down, because we've got “justinflation”.

Nate: We’ve got inflation down to 2%, to where it's supposed to be, and that's the whole thing. But, yeah.

Justin: Who knows if whatever issue we're picking is actually going to be it. And it was, it's sort of lovely to look back on my dad's last term and say that was what he was saying. We don't know what crises are going to hit the world. We only know there are going to be. And the question on who has the capacity.

Successes and Failures in Governance

Nate: Not a question on crises, I’ll push back a little bit though. So I think that's fair. And I think actually, if I were to articulate some of the successes, I want to get to successes and failures. And if I were to articulate some successes, chief among them is actually the Covid response, imperfect as it was, people could see you in front of that cottage every morning, and you were there, and we, you know, we could point to emergency benefits, we could point to, we could point to vaccine rollouts.

Justin: The fact that we bounced back faster than other countries.

Nate: Yeah, and overwhelmingly, I think Canadians do feel that. We just did a survey over the summer, and the number one thing people feel strongly about that the government's done well was the Covid response. Dental care came a close second. But, but having said all that, there are still things, and I'll use an example.

You're a dad. You've got kids that you love and Canadians can see that. And if I were in your shoes, I've got kids, too. And the Canada Child Benefit childcare has made a massive difference in so many people's lives. And now we're promising healthy school food, for the, to set kids up for success to an even greater degree.

To me, and I could add, we're protecting kids online. So let's take that package of delivering for families with kids. Poilievre doesn't talk about it. He doesn’t want to talk about it, because there are successes there that he doesn't want to point to. But you could talk about it and you could say, we have delivered for families with kids in a serious way, and you could point to progress, but people don't just want to vote for your record, they want to vote for what comes next.

And you can say credibly, because people know you care, they know you care. And especially about families and delivering for families with kids. And here's what comes next. If I, I'm in this again, this is what I'm in it for. And I do think there needs to be more of, yes, it could be, It's change and it's high level, but it sounds a lot like when Biden talks about defending democracy and it's, it's important and I, and I, believe in that but it's a little bit disconnected from people's day to day. 

And if instead it's, you know, I think, protecting the environment where people have seen flood risks, people see insurance premiums going up, they see the forest fires, they feel the forest fires. But when we're connecting issues like that, and there's another issue that I, you know, you've already talked about, but that is, I think, central to what you want to do next.

I do think it doesn't have to be so like, it doesn't have to be so, you know, cartoonish. But I think telling that story. Stories matter in our politics and you telling the stories of what you're in it for, I think is, is crucial.

Justin: Yeah. No, I entirely agree. And that's very much what we're, what we're putting together and building on. I mean, part of, but part of before we can properly pitch the next step, we, as you pointed out, we have to sort of highlight some of the things that we have done and that, quite frankly, are at risk. I mean, the Canada Child Benefit, the last time there was a vote on that, Poilievre voted against it.

Is even that at risk, let alone everything else you mentioned that he has actively opposed, from dental for kids to, to school foods to, to child care. We know he's nowhere on child care. These are things that have concretely helped, but also concretely improved our economic performance, improved the jobs, improved the opportunities. As a country, that is always the thing we're doing.

But if Canadians don't understand the things that we've done and that we've delivered, then there's, there's a real challenge in saying, oh, we're going to do this. Go, why should I believe you did this? You haven't done anything else. I mean, what are you talking about that we didn't do anything else. I mean, that's, and that's something that you’ve, you're, you're in caucus every week.

I mean, this is what we struggle with Nate. I mean, we. we're really trying to, trying to dig into how we both have Canadians understand what it is we've done and what it is at risk in the next election, because Poilievre has basically said he's going to undo everything that we, we did. The only thing we do know is he's going to continue to, to give tax breaks to the rich, he's going to reverse some of our tax breaks, that ask the wealthiest to do a little bit more. I mean, these are things that are really tangible. And we also have to have that positive ambition of this is what we're going to do together, in the next mandate. This is the next step of what we're going. And that's something we're busy putting together with, with caucus and everyone right now.

Nate: I think there's a lot. So there are certain issues like build the homes where we have to win that fight that matters too much to so many people, especially young Canadians, into our economy when you think of productivity. There are other issues, axe the tax is a powerful political message because especially when it's not tied to anything environment related. and it's just a broad, sweeping promise to axe some tax. Those who know us about the carbon tax and care a lot. Okay, it motivates a certain base. Just like how gutting the CBC motivates a certain Conservative base. But on some issues, we just have to fight them to a draw, right? We have to articulate the things we've done on auto theft.

We have to articulate the things we've done on climate. We just fight some of those things to a draw, axe the tax, stop the crime and fix the budget. And we hopefully win build the homes. But there are other issues that we need to, on fixing health care, we did deliver dental care and 6 million Canadians don’t have access to a family doctor, on delivering for families, as I mentioned, on protecting the environment. There's other issues that we have strength on, that we have credibility on, that we have a record on, and there are other things we want to do next. Taking the fight to Pierre doesn't just mean pointing out his inadequacies and his 20 year record. It also is to push him on issues the same way we did say gun control and environment with Andrew Scheer and Erin O’Toole, taking the fight to him, we've given him a little more of a free pass, I think since he was, since he was elected leader than I would maybe have if I could go back and do it again.

Justin: I've heard that a lot. And, and for sure to a certain extent, there absolutely was a theoretical path or was a path where we came out of the gate, greeted him when he became leader, the same way I was greeted by Stephen Harper.

Nate: You did a bit of it with Bitcoin, right? You did a bit of it.

Justin: Yeah, a little bit of that. But, but I mean, he actually did that to himself as much as anything else.

Nate: He mostly does it to himself. He can’t help himself.

Justin: Yeah, the thing that happened when I first came out, with, when I became leader, Stephen Harper, you know, attacked me out of the gate, greeted me with a, millions of dollars of ads. 

Nate: Just not ready.

Justin: No, that was, that was the last. That was the last one.

Nate: What was the first one?

Justin: The first one was oh, he's just not serious. He's, you can't, can you imagine him as prime minister? They had, they sorts of little. None of that really worked, but they came out and greeted me with that right away. Did it define me? Not particularly because Canadians sort of had an idea who I was. 

Canadians don't have much of an idea who Poilievre, he's been in the house for 20 years. Nobody knows who he is. There would have been an opportunity. At the same time, one of the things that gave me real pause on whether I would come out and start defining him right now is, we were busy governing through a really tough time, and we were fighting for Canadians and for me to come out and pick a fight with Poilievre right out of the gate. He's the new sort of leader, and I'm suddenly so worried about him that I'm going to put a millions of dollars of ad buy to try and tell Canadians how scary or reckless or dangerous he is. It could have worked, it might have worked. We might, you know, be sitting on couches ten years from now saying, oh, man, I was right, Nate. I wish we'd done.

But at the same time, there was something that didn't feel true to me, in terms of, now I'm going to pick a fight with him when I should be fighting for Canadians, when I should be trying to tackle inflation. That was a big challenge then, which we successfully tackled. So there's also part of the sequencing too, right. If if I'm going to, you know, drive someone down in the polls a year or two before an election or even 3 or 4 years before an election, is that the best time to knock them down and lift myself up, or do I want that to happen a little more organically, closer to the actual day when people choose?

Nate: Well, I won't dwell on it, but in Toronto–Saint Paul's I would have liked to have seen as an example some kind of paid ad, I would say, that is Pierre Poilievre, you have stood with the convoy in a public health crisis. He doesn't believe in serious climate action and he wants to gut the public broadcaster. Does he represent Toronto–Saint Paul's, and some version of that like I do think.

Justin: I like that. I can't argue against that, particularly knowing the, the result in Toronto–Saint Paul's, it certainly wasn't what we wanted. So I would have said, yeah, I wish we did something.

Nate: Yeah, because you want to set it up as a choice, but it was going to require work to set up as a choice, because there's a lot of work on the other end to set it up as a referendum on just you and your socks. And if that's the case, then it's, I don't even know if we have.

Justin: They're not even that bad today.

Youth, Long-term Thinking and Politics Today

Nate: But okay, so, I mentioned we're getting to successes. I got a little ahead of it and that we, at least in my community, I can say there's certain obvious successes that people would point to, to, not only Covid response, navigating through the first Trump presidency. God, God help us if there's a second one, looking at social programs in general, Canada Child Benefit, child care, dental care, there's a lot of hope around pharmacare, although I know we're at the beginnings of it, but people would point to, I think, navigating through crises and delivering social programs as, I think, these successes in some ways, when you reflect though, like not listening to my constituents, not listening to a survey, when you think back, you know, you've done this for now, nine years elected and you've been in this for much longer as leader, what do you look back on and say, if I hadn't been there, this wouldn't have happened, and I'm so glad I was there to make this happen.

Justin: I think a part of that frame for me is, well, what you did earlier Nate, which is go back to my dad. When we think of what my dad did, it's the things that still have an impact today. And that, fairly or unfairly, is the frame I tend to put on the things we did. So, you know, a particularly good policy that was right in the right moment, okay. But is it something that is going to make a material difference for my kids, two of whom are teenagers right now, ten years from now, and they're trying to buy a home? You know, 20 years from now when they're dealing with, you know, their kids in childcare or whatever it is, these are the things that is the frame for me.

So everything from the first moment when I was welcoming in that very first Syrian family in the airport in Toronto, in an evening in December, where I'm like, okay, decisions we made as a government have changed this family's life for the better forever. That's meaningful. Things like the Canada Child Benefit where part of the benefit is, yeah, putting more money in families pockets every month. Hundreds of dollars a month, tax free. That makes a huge difference. But the real impact of that is the adults that will have had that extra money in their pockets, in their families, all the way through childhood, having better outcomes, you know, having had more opportunities as kids, having been lifted out of poverty, being able to contribute even better.

Same thing on childcare. Yes, big difference right now in the workforce, certainly in the lives of moms who can choose. But you think of that, that leveling and that opportunity for early childhood education, that you don't actually feel the response to until 20 years from now. Same thing on climate change, like the things that we're doing now. Yeah, as Poilievre loves to point out, didn't prevent, you know, your, your price on pollution didn't prevent Jasper from burning. What a failure that is, let's just stop doing it. I mean, even a ten year old can see through the logic, the logic holes in that. But for me, I know that maybe what we're doing now means Jasper doesn't burn again 25 years from now, when everything is so much worse. Maybe we've actually managed to, to bend the curve in a way that is going to have a material impact.

Justin Trudeau

So one of my challenges, I know in retail politics, that's all short term, is I do tend to get wrapped up in the long term, and I think it's probably a product of having spent so many time with, so much time with young people. I came into teaching.

Nate: Yeah, you were the youth minister, you made yourself the youth minister.

Justin: I was. I made myself the youth minister as prime minister at the same time, but, but I came in as a teacher. I came as an environmental advocate, and I saw that young people were frustrated because we were making long term decisions in government, successive governments that we're not, we're not putting them and their future at the center of it. So bringing in long term thinkers, because that's what young people are, they're imagining, okay, what's my life going to be like 40 years from now, not just four years from now?

Harnessing that and keeping that in mind has been, I think, a real guide to how to think about and reflect on our successes. And that maybe, is why I don't wander around saying, we just did this really big thing, because people won't really feel the impact of it for another ten years, and maybe that's part of why I am so incredibly motivated that we've got all these things set up to ensure real success for Canada over the coming decades.

The danger of, of squandering that, that lead we have over so many of our competitors around the world, whether it's on the environment and the green economy, whether it's on child care and a responsible safety net, whether it's on all sorts of different things. These are the things that, that, oh my God, we have worked so hard for so many years to get Canada to a position where the coming decades are going to be so good for us, that the idea that a short term, you know, mistake, like electing a Conservative government that wants to bring us back to some past that never actually existed, and give up on climate change and give up on, like, all these things. It just would be so devastating to everything that, that we have been able to build that's going to make the future better for so many.

Nate: So you talk, I mean, that was a lot of different issues you point to as successes. But I take the overall point that you would say it's hard to judge in some ways, the things you you care about the most, the things that matter most to you are the longer is the longer term vision for the country, whether it's helping families but with a longer term view for long, long term outcomes, or whether it's climate change.

Electoral Reform

Governing wears on governance, as I've said. And there have, there have been challenges and, and mistakes made over nine years. You reflect on some of your successes there and, and what you see is what you want to leave and make an impact on the country for your decision making. Well, what do you see as, if I, if I could have that one back, I would do it differently the next time.

Justin: Electoral reform.

Nate: Ah, yeah. Music to my ears. You said that just for me, right?

Justin: I don't say that just for you. Actually, in one sense, I do say it just for you, because I know in just about any other interview.

Nate: I was going to raise it. 

Justin: Any other interview, the interviewer’s eyes glaze over.

Go, okay, yeah, but give me something real that you regret, right?

I said, no, no, no, this is real for me. I look at where the world is going and where polarization has happened, and where excesses of populism have been able to come in. And the winner take all version of first past the post that we have right now, where you can get elected as the MP for 100% of people in your riding with 30, you know, 32% of the vote if it's properly divided, if it's divided amongst other parties, is not just devaluing the votes of so many others, but it's giving you a false sense of, you know, being the only legitimate voice for your community.

Justin: And I, if I could do things differently, I don't know exactly how I would have, but I certainly would have done things differently around electoral reform to try and make sure that we are not going to be fighting this next election under first past the post again.

Nate: Yeah, this, easily in nine years, the worst day I had, as a Liberal caucus member, was the day we broke that promise. it looked, I mean, there's there's, it looked a little bit cynical to say, oh, we couldn't we can't figure out a path. And so we're going to, you know, just burn it to the ground, never talk about it again. That's probably not how you would feel about it.

Justin: I made two, two big mistakes on this one. The first one, because of some very strong voices in my caucus who were very, very clear that they wanted to, at least be able to make an argument for proportional representation, which, which I, I feel very, very strongly would be a mistake for Canada. I left the door open to proportional representation instead of ranked ballot, even within my own team.

And that made, made, a whole bunch of people who heard me say “last election as first past the post”, translate that into he's going to bring in proportional representation, which I was not, which I never was going to, and I wasn't clear enough on that. We can have the argument about making it.

Nate: But it wasn't, so it wasn't last election on our first past the post, it was make every vote count. Make your vote count. 

Justin: No, no, the vote was.

The vote.

Nate: Yeah, I know the language. You know, I know, but make every vote count was in our, was in our platform. Make every vote count was language lifted a little bit from FairVote so that it was like a few different ways that it was, it was like, oh yeah.

Justin: Oh yeah, no, no, no. And that was, and that was deliberately that people wanted to, to make sure that we were bringing in the FairVote people. And I, even though I had been very clear with caucus and at the Liberal convention in 2012 how much I am opposed to the idea of proportional representation, I couldn't, I it was something that I had to leave a little bit of a door open to, and unfortunately, because of that, it got further. And when people realized that, no, I was not going to let that move forward.

Nate: Yeah, you were never going to go there from the get go.

Justin: I could have been clearer on that because, I mean, we could talk about why, why, why I think proportional representation is, is dangerous for the country, and it doesn't have to do with as much with sort of, augmenting fringe voices, although that is is one of the arguments I think is interesting. The big one is I am really worried about decoupling members of Parliament in the House from a community of people who both voted for them and didn't vote for them, that they have to serve, you know?

Nate: Yeah, yeah, yeah. I don't think anyone, I don't think any advocate in Canada is arguing for doing away with, anyone who advocates for more proportional systems, advocates for doing away with local representation.

Justin: But, but then you also give people who got elected because they were on a party list, and you have MPs who owe their existence as MPs to a political party, as opposed to specific Canadians. So anyway, but that’s not the point.

Nate: Yeah, but you could do open lists. 

Justin: I said two things on that.

Nate: What was the second one?

Justin: The first one was I wasn't clear enough that I had real concerns.

Nate: And he turns into a nerd on electoral reform, I guess. 

Justin: Yeah, we knew this was going here because we're both total nerds about it. Right?

The second one is, me not using my majority to bring in, to bring in the model that I wanted, right, right. Because I could, I believe in ranked ballot. I think that if you give people choices to rank one, two, three, parties will try to pitch to be people's second or even third choice. and that brings in more cooperation and overlap between political parties in a way that counters anyone who is aggressively trying to polarize.

That's why I love ranked ballot, I think. I think it's also an easy switch where people get to write one, two, three, because it doesn't change the ridings, doesn't change anything, doesn't even change the ballots. You just, you know, instead of an X, you put one, two, three or four or five or whatever. 

But the consequences of changing our electoral system are so significant. It's not like bringing in a budget or a policy that you don't like, that you can then vote out the next election. When you change the way people are elected, it becomes really hard to change it because by definition, whoever won under that new system likes that system a lot. And, and that idea of needing consensus across, and not having it was why I chose to say, okay, I'm not going to risk an irreversible change just to fulfill a promise I made to, to change that.

So that was it was, it was a difficult day for you. It was a gut wrenching day for me to decide that I couldn't move forward on something that might hurt Canada in the long term and be irreversible without having a broader level of support in the House.

Nate: Without turning it into a proper debate on electoral reform, I think there are probably a few paths to, having moved forward without burning it to the ground the way that we did. And, and, you know, I was saying we should, we could have had a referendum at the same time, a 2019 election and save the money, and, but, I don’t want to go down, I don't want to go down that route.

Justin: I, and I take all those. And that's part of the whole regret. I wish there could have been a different way, that I could have done it.

Immigration and Housing Challenges

Nate: Here's one, though that is worth reflecting on because, we are right now grappling with getting nonpermanent resident numbers under control. Mark Miller is doing, I think, a good job. He's doing a good job on immigration. Sean's doing his utmost on housing, but there, you know, again, the feedback we've gotten overwhelmingly even, you know, strong proponents of immigration say, but it's got to be sustainable. 

And if we want this to work in the long term, we've got to make sure that sustainable, in keeping with, making sure we can look after people who get here and do you reflect on, you've said before and then, you know, I think you were kicking yourself afterwards when you said, that's not a primary federal responsibility. It's true. It's not. But it's a political message. Yeah, housing is not. But, you were probably kicking yourself afterwards, because it got politicized in a negative way.

Justin: Well, it's not something we can do alone.

Nate: We can't do it alone.

Justin: I mean the municipalities, provinces. 

Nate: If we can't do it alone, having said that, we've obviously leaned in in a significant way in the last, I would say, two plus years. If you were looking back at the nine, do you wish we had gotten ahold of that sooner?

Justin: I mean, we put forward a really ambitious national housing strategy in 2017, that was, you know, $70 billion. And it really did create a number of successes that we've seen over the past years. I mean, most of the things that most of the announcements we've made now about our latest housing initiatives, we're doing, in almost completed things that we, we invested in years before.

So we have seen successes. But I, I think that we were on a decent path where, yes, we should have leaned in even harder on provinces and municipalities to push back against NIMBYism sooner. But the pandemic came and changed everything so aggressively in terms of numbers of people, because we came out of the pandemic with a massive labour shortage, and provinces and business communities were screaming at us to bring in more temporary foreign workers because, you know, the economy was, we were bouncing back. People had money in their pockets, and we couldn't spend it on anything. 

Nate: Yeah, and to allow international students to work more.

Justin: Exactly. All these sorts of things. What that did was it shot up the numbers of international students, of temporary workers, and the global context, context pushed up asylum seekers as well. And that created more pressures and brought even more imbalance to the housing immigration thing.

So if you just look at, can Canada welcome foreign 450 or even 500,000 permanent residents a year? Absolutely. We can. It was the 2 million temporary residents on top of that that post-pandemic were asked, yeah needed that. We couldn't quite get, get under, under, to the right pace that we needed to that is requiring us to dial things in.

But overall, the most important thing, and the biggest advantage Canada, one of the biggest advantages Canada has over so many of our peers is, Canadians remain positive towards immigration. Even when you talk about building the homes and the services, you know, new Canadians who are working in our healthcare system, new Canadians who are in the construction industry are going to be essential for us to even meet our own needs, let alone the needs of, of, of a growing population.

So getting that right requires a level of clear eyed thoughtfulness that the pandemic certainly threw a wrench into. But as I look back, could we have made the shift, or should we have made the shift to integrate temporary immigration into our levels plan? Because we have that sort of, we talk about permanent residents as a levels plan, and then it's sort of a little more province driven, business driven for the temporary workers and the students, that we, we should have said no, no, years ago, okay, let's put it all in a cohesive thing and and take a careful look at housing starts. But we're doing that now in a very real way.

By-Election Losses and Relationships in Politics

Nate: I have two more questions. One is, you've got two by-election, tough by-election losses. And we, you know, there, Karina and others rightly are articulating, you know, we're listening and and we recognize that there's a need for change. And you even said, you know, people, if it's a change election. What change to you, if you're self-reflecting for our party, for, for cabinet, for the way you govern, for the way you individually approach communicating and delivering for people, or managing your own caucus or managing your colleagues, what change are you reflecting on?

Justin: Well, there's a lot of a lot of things that were particular to those byelections. There's lots of factors that maybe.

Nate: Yeah, let’s not get into that, maybe just like if there's a message of change.

Justin: One of the things, one of the things that I know that I would have liked to have been able to do, earlier is get the candidate in place and working the ground for longer. I mean, you benefited in your riding, right? Which was not a, not an easy riding. 

Nate: Excruciatingly long nomination, and then knocking doors in the snow.

Justin: And then time to fight. Exactly. No, no. But, and I did that too. I had a whole year, to, to be a nominated candidate before I won my first time in Papineau in 2008. And in taking the riding away from a really strong Bloc MP, and it was the work on the ground that did it. 

I, in both of these byelections, we didn't give Leslie enough time on the ground, we didn't give Laura enough time on the ground. And that, that's something that in this, in this age of information overload.

Nate: Yeah, yeah, I agree with you on that, but that's more tactical. Like I think that and that's sort of like, same as it ever was. Like, we always need more, more time on the ground. I, you know, you'll hear Brian May talk for years about early nominations. I agree with all that. But do you think there's something, larger like, here's one example. Yeah. and then I'll leave you with, an opportunity with my last question to, to, do your own kind of rant, but, I, you know, just on a on a interpersonal side, like, I am, I'm nothing if not persistent. And I've had no issue with face time and building a relationship. And we don't always see eye to eye. But I when people are like, oh, when was the last time you said the Prime Minister, and I was like, if I want to bother him, I'll bother him and he will allow me to bother him. At the same time.

Justin: It’s a nice break in the day, actually, usually.

Nate: No one else says that, but, but, but regardless, not all of my colleagues feel that way, and, you know, I'm not going to get into, you know, the SNC stuff. I'm not going to read Jody's book, but there is an excerpt in there that, where she didn't have your cell phone number. I found that kind of astounding.

And I don't know if Jagmeet Singh had your cell phone number, but if you were, you know, part of me thinks if he did and if you were regularly texting, if he felt like he was more attached and involved and connected, maybe he doesn't aggressively, you know, I know there's shameless politics at play there regardless, so maybe he does, but maybe he doesn't, like because politics, like life.

Justin: Maybe he doesn't walk away from SACA, you mean? Maybe he doesn’t campaign as hard.

Nate: Maybe not in quite the same way, maybe not in quite the same way, because maybe he does. I'm not saying maybe, but I'm just saying everything depends on relationships. Like, Charlie's not going to, Charlie Angus isn't going to screw me the same way as some other NDP members are, because I have a relationship with him. I'm not going to I'm not going to go after Michelle Rempel in the same way, because I have a relationship with her, everything's relationships. And when you think of, you know, changing things, in some way, does that enter the conversation?

Justin: Well, listen, I mean, the example of Jagmeet is, is an interesting one because we we created SACA together. Yeah, because he just had a baby, and, and we just come through a brutal, brutal, brutal, grueling election, where the NDP went around saying that we've done nothing.

Nate: That's right. I mean, I was there enough. I ran against the NDP

Justin: That we didn't do anything was a really cynical ploy that undermines any faith that progressives have in what we elected this progressive government.

Nate: It was easy to run against.

Justin: But yeah, it was, but, but no, but it, it, it hurt us. And I said, you know what Jagmeet, we’ve got to get past this. We got it too. And I sat down with him and I actually developed a really good working relationship with him, and we'd have great conversations about a whole bunch of things, and we'd get into policy and we'd get like, and I'd meet with him and talk with him in person, or on the phone, every, every few months for the entire duration of SACA.

Nate: Okay, okay.

Justin: And then when he decided to, to end SACA, he didn't even call me right, there was like, so. So the relationship obviously wasn't what I thought it was. Yeah. where I know that if I had chosen to end it, it would have started with a call to him or I would have said, you know what?

Jagmeet, tt's not going to work. I'm, you know, you make those tough calls. I don't know why he didn't reach out to me, because I know. I know what he cares about. I know the things that matter to him. I know he is genuine in wanting to see this country move forward in more progressive ways.

For him to do that that way, it, it bugged me, and it bugged me because I know these things matter to him, but having politics sort of kick in and him having to deal with pressures from his caucus or his base or whatever.

Nate: And the by-election.

Justin: And then in the by-election, like, all those things just sort of emphasize for me, okay. I wouldn't do that. And I, I still believe and I, there's no hard feelings on it, we’ll be, we’ll be engaging those and listen, I know that Jagmeet really cares about the environment. I also know he doesn't know what to do about the environment. I'm happy to say that and argue with that. But I'm like, I know what we can do about the environment. I'm demonstrating how to reduce emissions and grow the economy and put money back in people's pockets. So come on board. And for him to say, oh, maybe we're not in favour of carbon pricing. It's like, oh, come on, really? This is, what, this is why you wanted to step out of SACA? Because you're going to try and, you know, cozy up with Poilievre, or get away from the difficult conversation about how we continue to fight climate change? I mean, hard things are hard sometimes. and it just sort of disappointed me that he didn't, he didn't, you know, pick up the phone and say, okay, this is time.

Mobilizing Youth and the Liberal Party

Nate: All right. So this is my last question, and I hope.

Justin: I hope it’s about all the times you voted against me in the House.

Nate: Not, no, I wasn't I mean, like, people know that, but what are we going to, you know, I could go down a rabbit hole and talk about, you know, drug policy. We go down a rabbit hole and talk about animal welfare.

Justin: What I would talk about is, is why it matters and why I think it's the strength of the Liberal Party that people can vote against, the party, on a whole bunch of different things. And so nobody, I guess we don't ever disagree on this.

Nate: You don't have to debate it, because I agree. And, but this is a bit of a preface to the last question because, I was a young lawyer and I left that. I left a more lucrative career. I didn't have kids at the time, but, I love my wife a great deal and spent less time with her. And, and I left all that to make a difference in politics.

I believe it's the most important way to make a difference. I was able to represent my home community. Nobody knew who I was in the broader political picture, you're probably anyone looking at Beaches-East York at the time is going like, who is this kid? And, like, well, you know, maybe he wins, maybe he doesn't. But he's not really he's not going to help us win, when you look at the ledger of name recognition and, but you had open nominations and now I know people will complain about different nominations, in my nomination, I wouldn't be doing this but for that commitment that you made in that leadership of doing things differently and more bottom up democracy, I wouldn't have run for you if it weren't for your commitment and your leadership to empowering parliamentarians, which I think is critical. And it's not just better for our politics. It is, of course, better for our party. So I don't think we have to, I don't think we have to debate it.

I think it's I think it's, you've already said it's a feature, not a bug. In the course of, when we started this conversation. I do think, though, that I would, I was deeply motivated to, to make a difference and to leave in part because of, you know, this idea of doing things differently and building something, something new.

Nine years in, it's different, right? It's, and, I'm still, you know, I might not be the person on the ballot in Beaches-East York, but I'm going to help no matter what. And I'm not walking away from the cause. But you have a lot of people who aren't like me, who are still in the thick of it, who are on the sidelines.

People who have volunteered in the past and what is your message to people who, who were just so excited heading into 2015? And, you know, not everything's been, I forget what you said. It's not everything's unicorns and whatever in Canada. Well, not everything's unicorns when everyone you're when you're governing either. What do you say to them to motivate those in many cases, Liberal volunteers, what do you want to leave them with? To say, I need you now, and this is why I'm in it, and I need you to be in it to know.

Justin: First of all, to go on the specific examples, then to, to, to get larger, the same things that drove us then to make sure that people were strong voices for their communities in Ottawa as opposed to being, well, I, as we were first running Stephen Harper's voice in their communities, which was what most conservative MPs now they're Pierre Poilievre’s voice in their communities, but that's what it is. 

Saying something like, okay, it's going to be free votes for members of the Liberal Party, except for things that are explicitly in the platform, because that's what you get elected on. Things that are confidence, because we're a team that needs to stay in power, and things that go to the heart of the Charter, because that's what a Liberal is.

Nate: And that was a thoughtful way of articulating it.

Justin: And we've been consistent on that. And that's still very much our place. And it's still very much in contrast with the approach that the Conservatives have. All right. And that, that's still an active choice. Open nominations, same thing. It was really important in 2015 that everyone have open nominations, partially because we were trying to build an entire new team, we were down to 35 seats. And I said, you know what? Each of you, 35 who are still here, you should be able to take on and win any challengers. And we're going to do it right. Because it was a full reset.

Nate: I thought about this a lot, running for leadership last year. I was, and very much of the same comments I was making in that, on the democratic reform side was consistent, because that's what motivated me to get involved.

Justin: Yeah. and that's something I still believe in. I mean, now we don't need the same level of reset in people. We perhaps need it in policy and a few different things. But, so, we have appointed people from time to time in very rare exceptions. But, the leaning in on open nominations is still a huge priority for me because it's so great, I agree.

Now, how do you motivate people who've been perhaps sitting on the sidelines? First of all, there's sort of a negative way of. and that, that's an important driver as well. People look at Pierre Poilievre and they imagine the damage that he'll do we’ll, we’ll, Canada cannot, you know, go down that road. People who do remember, Stephen Harper do remember all the negatives out there and say, oh, my God, this will be even worse.

So this is a challenge, and that motivates some people. But Liberals don't get out of bed to fight against something. We tend to fight for things. We want to know what that vision is, what that ambition is, what the excitement is about the future. And that's really what I've been focused on articulating and what we will be articulating over the coming months, over the coming year, hopefully we get to October of next year because my, my son, my eldest, who was, in utero while I was running for the nomination, Sophie was pregnant with him when I was running for the nomination in Papineau, will be old enough to vote in, for the very first time in the next election. So that, for me, is a beautiful bookend. And it's something I'm.

Nate: Axe the tax.

Justin: He’s not voting that, although he did ask me why he didn't get the Canada carbon rebate, that, that I said, no, I get that cheque at home. That's, I, I think you're a lightweight because some of my friends got it, because. Yeah, well, your friends live on their own, that's a different thing. So it's, yeah, it's a, that's a good line.

But what is, what is the positive, ambitious vision of this country that we're putting forward. And the challenge is because everyone says, okay, what's the new vision? The things we've been fighting for for eight years: environment and economy, inclusion, progressive values, defense of individual rights, respect for everyone. Non polarized politics that focus on bringing people together. All those things that we've been fighting for are not just still important, they're more important in this upcoming election than they ever have been.

That's on the line. Canada has built, actually an edge, an advantage over so many other countries in the world because we've been leaning in the right way and the retrograde forces that are pulling back and saying, oh, no, this is, this is why we're doing badly. This is fighting against climate change is why Canadians can't afford their groceries, which is a massive oversimplification, and has has been shown by many experts, just wrong, but certainly bodes poorly for the future. 

All those things remain at the heart of what we're fighting for, how we wrap that up into a compelling, ambitious vision that gets people out into the streets to be a movement like we were in 2015, that is going to be tackle, tackling, Pierre Poilievre with that same enthusiasm that we did at nine years ago. That is the single minded focus that I have over the next few months. As a party leader, even as I continue as Prime Minister, with a single minded focus on actually delivering the things that are going to get Canadians back to a place of positivity and ambition, because that's what we need, and that's, that's the place where Canadians naturally sit in. Right now, they look at me and, and they're not feeling it as strongly as I think we need them to when the election rolls around. And I'm very much focused on tackling that.

Nate: Well, and the ideas you’re for, I'm glad you emphasize that. So, serious, ambitious plans. And I think that is what, it's those two ideas that have to be married, that there's a serious credibility to what we do that oftentimes, sets us apart from the NDP, who might have shared 

So it's ambition that we need as well on housing, I think protecting the environment, delivering for families with kids, and fixing health care. I think that, that's the ground that we have to stake out in a serious way, point to progress and articulate what we're going to deliver next. The one thing I’ll leave you with, you obviously have the drive, you said to me back in New Brunswick, when we had the caucus meeting there, you play to your competition, and I think you were referencing your pool playing, and I don't know if it's good or not, but you referenced your pool playing, and you are so keen. 

Justin: I’m very erratic. I can be brilliant.

Nate: And you were keen to rise to the competition because you, you recognize, I think we all recognize it here, Pierre Poilievre is a better communicator than past Conservative leaders that we’ve faced. I think the only thing to reflect on is just a timing question, because, you want your ace to, to have that drive and think that they've got, they want they, they have to want the ball in their hand and they've got to feel like they've got gas in the tank.

You also want a coach who goes, you know, are we in a position to win with this guy on the mound at this moment in time? And this is just a timing question, like I want you to, I want you to fight the fight, have the drive that you've got and, and take it to Poilievre. Yeah, and turn things around.

I think you have, you're capable of doing that. And I want you to give it your go. I do think you have to also, both you and your team be looking at and going, it's a timing question too, if we throw everything at the wall and it's not working, then we also have to consider, you know, what's in the best interests of the country and at that moment in time.

And so I think you just have to carry both of those ideas in your mind. You have to have the drive. You can't ever turn that off. But you also have to say, you know, if, if Canadians are tuning me out at some point, then I got to recognize that too. And that's not a today conversation that's, you know, continue to have that, that reflection over the coming months. But I really appreciate it, I really appreciate you joining me.

Justin: You know, always great to see you. Always great to chat with you.

Nate: Yeah. It's great. I'm glad you joined, I'm glad we made this happen. 

Outro

Nate: Thanks for joining me on this episode of Uncommons. I really appreciate the Prime Minister’s time, of course, he could be doing lots of other things, and we don’t have quite the same audience as Colbert, although we’re growing, thanks to you.

The second thing we’re doing, we’ve got future episodes coming up with Mark Carney, we’re scheduling Chrystia Freeland, if you have suggestions for future guests or topics, you can always reach us at info@beynate.ca and otherwise, until next time.

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Keywords: Justin Trudeau, Nathaniel Erskine-Smith, Canadian politics, Liberal Party, leadership, governance, climate change, public service, elections, democracy, governance, climate change, electoral reform, immigration, housing, by-elections, Liberal Party, political relationships, leadership, Canada

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.uncommons.ca