Are #stocks a useful indicator of #recession? How about #depression? If they were, they can't explain how there wasn't a Great Depression 2 in the late 80s. After all, there were hundreds of #bank failures especially after the Crash of '87. Yet, we remember that period of time fondly as the Great "Moderation", a prolonged age of unrivaled global prosperity. The differences btw the 80s and 30s tell us a lot about our chances in the 20s.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
FOMC Conference Call Transcript
Oct 20, 1987
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/FOMC19871020confcall.pdf
FOMC Transcript
Nov 3, 1987
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/FOMC19871103meeting.pdf
FOMC Transcript
Feb 9-10, 1988
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/FOMC19880210meeting.pdf
NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee Determines that Recession Began in July 1990
https://www.nber.org/news/business-cycle-dating-committee-announcement-april-25-1991
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