Benefit cliffs and the middle-class squeeze

Mike Green is a macro strategist known for his work on market structure, benchmark distortions, passive flows and systemic fragility.

A single benchmark shaped American markets and policy for decades and economist Mike Green believes it distorted risk, inflated asset prices, weakened the middle class and misled policymakers about the true state of the economy. In this conversation, he breaks down how a flawed model became accepted as truth, how it quietly rewired incentives, and why he thinks the consequences are now impossible to ignore.

In this episode we discuss: – What the "broken benchmark" actually is – How flawed assumptions shaped U.S. economic policy – Why markets mispriced risk for decades – The rise of passive flows and distorted price signals – How asset inflation hurt the middle class – Why housing affordability collapsed – Why policymakers didn't correct the model – The structural consequences for future generations – Whether America can fix the system without a crisis – How the UK is importing the same benchmark problems

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TIMESTAMPS: 00:00:00 – How a Benchmark Became a National Problem 00:16:24 – The Rise of Passive Flows & Market Distortion 00:32:18 – Why America Misprices Risk 00:48:05 – Asset Inflation & the Middle-Class Squeeze 01:04:22 – Housing, Debt & Structural Fragility 01:19:57 – Why Policymakers Didn't Fix the Benchmark 01:36:44 – Elites, Incentives & the Illusion of Prosperity 01:53:30 – The UK's Imported Benchmark Problem 02:10:42 – What a Saner Benchmark Would Look Like 02:27:15 – Future Scenarios & Final Thoughts

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CONTACT PETE › Website – http://petermccormack.com › Feedback – https://www.petermccormack.com/contact › Email – me@petermccormack.com › Instagram – /mccormack555 › X/Twitter – https://x.com/petermccormack/

CONNECT WITH MIKE GREEN › Website – https://www.simplify.us › Twitter – https://x.com/profplum99 › Substack – https://substack.com/@michaelwgreen

SPONSORS › IREN - https://www.iren.com/ › Ledger - https://www.ledger.com/ › Gemini - https://gemini.com/

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FILMED BY CURTIS TAYLOR › https://www.curttaylor.co.uk/ › https://x.com/curttayloruk/

EDITED BY CONOR MCCORMACK › https://x.com/ConorM04