Analyzing Rate Cut Predictions and Market Dynamics

This chapter explores the evolving market predictions surrounding interest rate changes, emphasizing insights from Polymarket and the impact of Producer Price Index data. It examines the unconventional use of prediction markets and Bitcoin prices as key indicators for Federal Reserve monetary policy decisions.

Transcript

chevron_right

Play full episode

chevron_right

Transcript

Episode notes

- block releases proto mining open source and modular mining rig https://proto.xyz

- treasury secretary scott bessent says SBR is around 125k btc, does not intend to buy more, will focus on confiscation https://x.com/TFTC21/status/1956013601741005172

- US Producer Prices Rise by Most in Three Years on Services https://archive.is/xzohV

- Polymarket: Fed decision in September? https://polymarket.com/event/fed-decision-in-september

- Bolivia | Banks Limit Withdrawals as Digital Asset Usage and Inflation Climb

In Bolivia, where annual inflation has reached 25% and banks have been limiting withdrawal of US dollars to $100 a week, Bloomberg reports that Bolivians are turning to Bitcoin and digital assets as alternatives to the boliviano. “I’m not the only one using Bitcoin,” Christopher Salas, a coffee vendor in La Paz, said. “There’s a barbershop over there and a gym that also accepts satoshis.” For Salas, Bitcoin is both a hedge and a protest: “a way to preserve the value of my savings, but also a way to go against the system, against bureaucracy.” Bolivia’s hybrid authoritarian regime lifted a decade-long ban on digital assets in 2024. Since then, the volume of digital asset payments has grown more than fivefold to nearly $300 million in the first half of 2025. The University of San Andres allegedly pays its international faculty in Bitcoin. Carlos Neira, co-founder of Colombian wallet provider Meru, reports a staggering 6,600% increase in Bolivian users since the ban was lifted. FinancialFreedomReport.org

- Founder of SimpleX on why he is not implementing MLS https://www.poberezkin.com/posts/2025-08-12-mls-the-naked-king-of-end-to-end-encryption.html

- Signal boss: ‘disturbing’ laws show the UK doesn’t understand tech https://archive.is/BtZD0

- Location tracking based on photos https://archive.is/YjaYy + https://x.com/heinenbros/status/1941943605343785219

- American Hodl vlogs on nostr https://primal.net/e/nevent1qqs9gs5rrya4f3zql67yzemwmkehm96d7cxwakypjelp4xayqa36a2ctlx4zp

0:00 - Intro

2:35 - Block Rig

14:46 - Monero attacks

23:24 - Bessent's stealing your coins

27:29 - PPI

32:50 - Polymarket fed decision

36:53 - HRF Story of the Week

52:09 - Poberezkin MLS blog