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Why Is the Recession Taking So Long to Show Up? | Bob Elliott

Hidden Forces

CHAPTER

The Debt Ceiling Negotiations

The debt ceiling is one of those tail risks that requires a great deal of understanding on the small chance that it becomes an actual issue. I think people who are close to the politics of this are seeing things like maybe a 50 or 75 basis point GDP impact from the cuts that would come from the agreed upon debt ceiling rise. And then there's the tactical dynamics about what's going on with the debt ceiling which, you know, are more nuanced but the gist of which is that the US will not default.

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