The Probability Distribution of Earth's Climate in the Year 2100

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There is an actual probability distribution of what earth's climate will be in the year 2100. No one knows it, but for illustrative purposes, I will create this black curve to represent this future reality. What is good for poor people may not be good for dolphins or forests. It is generally true today that policies good for environmental issues will be bad for economic ones and vice versa. This dynamic pertains to all issues in the future, but let's focus on climate for now measured by the average global temperature increase relative to pre industrial times in degrees Celsius.

Recorded April 10, 2023

Description

In this Frankly, Nate explains how he views the future from a probability perspective - a tool frequently used in industries such as finance, retirement planning, and by e.g. gamblers. While there will be only one eventual outcome, the possible paths to that future fall in a distribution, with some results much more likely than others. We can shift these results with our actions in the present. However, no one person can know this distribution perfectly, only the distribution shaped by their own bias, knowledge, and perspective. How might we use a probabilistic approach to better understand what’s possible - and even to better relate to others? By thinking of the future as a spectrum, can we avoid falling into traps of certainty and complacency that inevitably lead to inaction? While there are some outcomes that are impossible, there are still many within our power to steer towards during a Simplification.

To watch on Youtube: https://youtu.be/uWn2svl6aBU

For Show Notes and More: https://www.thegreatsimplification.com/frankly-original/29-reality-probability-and-perception