How to Use a Crystal Ball to Improve Your Portfolio

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Sonia: Bernstein is fixated on short-term treasury bonds. She says he would be better off taking that 50% of his assets and putting it into a single premium immediate annuity, which will pay more even accounting for inflation. Sonia: Morningstar came out with their forecast last December, which were basically average kind of returns for the stock market over the next 30 or 40 years; they're completely different than what Bernstein's assuming.

In this episode we answer an email from Judy. We discuss a 2013 Michael Kitces article about risk parity, which aspects we have incorporated and which we have not (and why), and then talk about an interview of William Bernstein about his new book and some related thoughts and ramifications about bonds, crystal balls, annuities and other things. (Note: I think I said it was the 4th edition, but its really just the 2d.)

And THEN we our go through our weekly portfolio reviews of the seven sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio.

Additional links:

2013 Michael Kitces Risk Parity Article: Microsoft Word - Kitces Report November-December 2013 - RISK PARITY - FINAL

Morningstar Long View Interview of William Bernstein: Bill Bernstein: Revisiting The Four Pillars of Investing | Morningstar

Morningstar Long View Interview of Aswath Damodaran: Aswath Damodaran: A Valuation Expert’s Take on Inflation, Stock Buybacks, ESG, and More | Morningstar

Factor Investing Book: Your Complete Guide to Factor-Based Investing: The Way Smart Money Invests Today by Andrew L Berkin | Goodreads

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