Forecasting Default Rates in a Volatile Market

Leveraged buyouts are poised for a revival, albeit less aggressively structured than in the last wave, according to Moody’s Ratings. “Ultimately everyone will need to adjust to the new environment and you will see deal flow come back,” Christina Padgett, the firm’s head of leveraged finance and private credit research, tells Bloomberg News’ James Crombie and Bloomberg Intelligence’s Jean-Yves Coupin in the latest episode of the Credit Edge podcast. “There’s too much capital that needs to be put to work,” says Padgett, noting potential for LBOs in the technology, health care and services sectors. We also discuss the rise of distressed debt exchanges, leveraged loan risk, the impact of tariffs on weak borrowers and why default rates should fall next year.

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