The El Farol problem
Simplifying Complexity
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The Uncertainty of Self Negating
The problem itself is not logically well defined or determinate how people would act. And yet it arrives very, very quickly at a balanced equilibrium around the comfort level. It's not trying to forecast the truth, you don't know the truth. So I began to think that each little forecasting rule was like a species trying to do well in an ecology of other little forecasting species.
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