3min chapter

Simplifying Complexity cover image

The El Farol problem

Simplifying Complexity

CHAPTER

The Uncertainty of Self Negating

The problem itself is not logically well defined or determinate how people would act. And yet it arrives very, very quickly at a balanced equilibrium around the comfort level. It's not trying to forecast the truth, you don't know the truth. So I began to think that each little forecasting rule was like a species trying to do well in an ecology of other little forecasting species.

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