3min chapter

Clearer Thinking with Spencer Greenberg cover image

Self-Improvement and Research Ethics (with Rob Wiblin)

Clearer Thinking with Spencer Greenberg

CHAPTER

The Importance of Prediction Markets

I think it's interesting to compare them to regular financial markets like with the stock market, because you know, there's this whole idea of the efficient market hypothesis. And we also know that averaging different forecasts tend to be the individuals. My suspicion is what's going on is that often these are really like charged political topics. You know, if there's any topic that makes people go, you know, not think rationally, it's politics.

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