Taxation and Trade Wars: Analyzing Economic Impacts

Two weeks into his trade war, Donald Trump has made at least a few tactical retreats, and markets have stabilized a bit as a result. Are we just in the eye of the storm? Or is it possible the economic fallout from the trade war won’t be as severe as we feared on LIBERATION DAY?

In this episode, Matt and Brian discuss:

* Why did markets recover significantly (though not entirely) from the big sell off after Trump launched the trade war?

* Who has a better read on the harm Trump is likely to do to the United States and its economy, traders or Democrats?

* Even in a least-bad case scenario, isn’t Trump setting himself up to absorb more economic blowback than Joe Biden did for presiding over a year of moderate inflation?

Then, behind the paywall, how can Democrats hedge against the possibility that public opinion won’t do all their political work for them? Between Trump violating court orders, and Democrats facing greater threats of violence, how likely are we to lose democracy well before the midterm elections? What if anything can Democrats do to keep the rule of law intact enough to have a fair shot next November? What kinds of candidates should they recruit to maximize their odds of retaking power, even if the economy doesn’t collapse?

All that, plus the full Politix archive are available to paid subscribers—just upgrade your subscription and pipe full episodes directly to your favorite podcast app via your own private feed.

Further reading:

* Matt on the trade-deficit myths driving Trump’s economic self-sabotage.

* Brian on how House Democrats can exploit the rules to run down the clock and draw attention to the assault on democracy, and growing momentum for resistance.

* Democrats plan a fact-finding trip to the CECOT gulag in El Salvador.