Are We Not Forecasting a Downturn?

When rates were what quarter, half point, they thought pretty much a year out, we'd just be like incrementally higher, right? And they were way, way off. In December, when I did that interview, they were looking at maybe three rate hikes by the Fed this year. Now it's looking like five. No one can forecast basically how high rates will go. What we can look at is the evidence. And right now the evidence is pretty much all stacked against the Fed doing that,. The other expectation they mentioned was on earnings. That is really an eerie complacency that I see.