11. Thinking, Fast and Slow by Daniel Kahneman
Education Bookcast
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How Do You Predict Helpfulness in Psychology?
Meal reported generally similar results across a variety of other forecast outcomes including violations of parole success in pilot training and criminal recidivism. Usually combining a few numbers in a particular way like looking at somebody grades or something is going to be a better predictor than an actual person having loads of information about that other person or the other situation. Although these formula are doing better than people formulae plus some extra people input do best of all so if you do something like use a formula but then also have a person add on the end what they think and use that to slightly weight the resulting score seems to often do best.
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