New Recession Indicator Shows Americans Worse Off Than We Thought
On The Market
How the New Indicator Is Constructed
Dave details the indicator's components: inflation-adjusted wages and an unemployment moving-average rule for downside risk.
The United States is on the brink of a recession, according to major multinational bank UBS. Meanwhile, America’s largest bank, JPMorgan Chase, says recession risk is only at 40%. Who’s right? Who’s wrong? We’re using a new recession indicator in this episode to reveal America’s real risk of sliding into another downturn.
If it feels like your dollar doesn’t go as far as it used to and your salary is barely keeping up—you’re not imagining it.
But according to official sources, America has only been in a recession for three months since the Great Financial Crisis. That can’t be right when it’s getting this hard to get by. That’s why, in this episode, Dave shares his new recession indicator, based on the average American’s finances, to measure the financial health of real Americans, not what corporate earnings reports suggest.
Looking back, the economic data doesn’t fit the official narrative. And if you feel like you’ve been in a recession for years, you might be right. But you can still protect (and grow) your wealth while the economy falters. Are your investments keeping your real wealth afloat?
In This Episode We Cover
The new “recession indicator” that forecasts whether average Americans will struggle or not
Recession predictions from top banks and whether we’re on the precipice of a crisis
Why the standard definition of a “recession” is wrong and ignores average Americans
The alarming statistic that shows just how much of your spending power has been eaten away
How to recession-proof your finances and invest so you can weather economic storms
And So Much More!
Links from the Show
Join the Future of Real Estate Investing with Fundrise
Sign Up for the On the Market Newsletter
Find an Investor-Friendly Agent in Your Area
BiggerPockets Real Estate 1119 - How to Invest in Real Estate During a Recession (2025 Update)
Major bank issues warning that there’s a 93% chance of a recession in the US this year
JPMorgan Chase: The probability of a recession has fallen to 40%
Buy the Book, "Recession-Proof Real Estate Investing"
Check out more resources from this show on BiggerPockets.com and https://www.biggerpockets.com/blog/on-the-market-372
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