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2min chapter
Can the yield curve still predict recessions?
The Indicator from Planet Money
Understanding the Yield Curve and Its Limitations as a Recession Indicator
This chapter explores the yield curve's historical significance as a recession predictor, with a focus on the recent inversion between three-month and 10-year treasury bonds. It questions the reliability of the yield curve amidst strong economic indicators such as job growth and consumer spending, while revisiting traditional recession definitions.
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