Eneasz Brodski and Steven Zuber host the Bayesian Conspiracy podcast, which has been running for nine years and covers rationalist topics from AI safety to social dynamics. They're both OG rationalists who've been in the community since the early LessWrong days around 2007-2010. I've been listening to their show since the beginning, and finally got to meet my podcast heroes!
In this episode, we get deep into the personal side of having a high P(Doom) — how do you actually live a good life when you think there's a 50% chance civilization ends by 2040? We also debate whether spreading doom awareness helps humanity or just makes people miserable, with Eneasz pushing back on my fearmongering approach.
We also cover my Doom Train framework for systematically walking through AI risk arguments, why most guests never change their minds during debates, the sorry state of discourse on tech Twitter, and how rationalists can communicate better with normies. Plus some great stories from the early LessWrong era, including my time sitting next to Eliezer while he wrote Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality.
* 00:00 - Opening and introductions
* 00:43 - Origin stories: How we all got into rationalism and LessWrong
* 03:42 - Liron's incredible story: Sitting next to Eliezer while he wrote HPMOR
* 06:19 - AI awakening moments: ChatGPT, AlphaGo, and move 37
* 13:48 - Do AIs really "understand" meaning? Symbol grounding and consciousness
* 26:21 - Liron's 50% P(Doom) by 2040 and the Doom Debates mission
* 29:05 - The fear mongering debate: Does spreading doom awareness hurt people?
* 34:43 - "Would you give 95% of people 95% P(Doom)?" - The recoil problem
* 42:02 - How to live a good life with high P(Doom)
* 45:55 - Economic disruption predictions and Liron's failed unemployment forecast
* 57:19 - The Doom Debates project: 30,000 watch hours and growing
* 58:43 - The Doom Train framework: Mapping the stops where people get off
* 1:03:19 - Why guests never change their minds (and the one who did)
* 1:07:08 - Communication advice: "Zooming out" for normies
* 1:09:39 - The sorry state of arguments on tech Twitter
* 1:24:11 - Do guests get mad? The hologram effect of debates
* 1:30:11 - Show recommendations and final thoughts
Show Notes
The Bayesian Conspiracy — https://www.thebayesianconspiracy.com
Doom Debates episode with Mike Israetel — https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RaDWSPMdM4o
Doom Debates episode with David Duvenaud — https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mb9w7lFIHRM
Doom Debates’ Mission is to raise mainstream awareness of imminent extinction from AGI and build the social infrastructure for high-quality debate.
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