SI385: When Volatility Becomes the Signal ft. Katy Kaminski
Top Traders Unplugged
Outro
Niels and Katy close the episode with listener requests, next guests, and podcast housekeeping details.
Katy Kaminski joins us to assess the early signals shaping markets in 2026. The conversation explores the resurgence of commodity trends, the role of volatility estimation, and why diversification across markets and speeds matters more than ever. Drawing on new research, they examine dispersion within the CTA universe, the limits of replication, and how volatility targeting quietly determines outcomes. From precious metals to currencies, from crisis alpha to geopolitical risk, this episode offers a grounded look at why trend following thrives during disruption and why regime change remains its natural habitat.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Katy on LinkedIn.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Introduction to the Systematic Investor Series
00:39 - Weather disruptions and market perspective
02:31 - Precious metals and extreme commodity moves
04:28 - Gold, central banks, and monetary regime shifts
07:43 - Replication versus full CTA diversification
09:47 - Liquidity differences across metals
12:03 - Metals leading trend performance in 2026
15:01 - Multi-sector trends and diversification benefits
20:13 - Media attention and the return of trend following
23:29 - Research insights on speed and dispersion
31:44 - Trend speed and timing tradeoffs
40:59 - Market concentration and narrow universes
43:19 - Volatility estimation as a hidden driver
50:41 - Crisis alpha and regime change
59:53 - Geopolitical risk and future research themes
Resources discussed in this Episode:
Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
The AI-powered Podcast Player
