The Recession Questions: Yes, No, When and How Bad?
Notes on the Week Ahead
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The Risk of Policy Mistakes in the Economy
The average length of the 12 complete economic expansions since World War II has been 64 months or 5 in a third years. The current expansion restarted in May of 2020 just celebrated its third birthday. It appears that the Fed may be contemplating hiking by 25 basis points in July, skipping a September hike and then adding a last hike on November 1st. Given the likely very weak trend in economic growth, we are just one medium sized banana skin away from recession.
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