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The Probability of Being an Ordinary Observer
A cosmological scenario that has no boltsman brains in it is called theory a. In theory b, there are the same number of ordinary observers but with many more 'boltsman' brains. The typical cosmologist on the street would say: ok, they're cenario a, only ordinary observers, no boltsman brain. Scenario b, that has both, and there are a lot of bolsman brains.