On today's episode of Forward Guidance, David Rosenberg Founder and President of Rosenberg Research & Associates joins the show to discuss the continuing recessionary pressures he sees building in the economy.
Preparing for a recession within the next six months, David walks through prior Fed tightening cycles, the lagged effects of fiscal stimulus that are now dwindling and the incoming credit crunch that will materialize towards the end of 2023 into 2024. To hear all this & more, you'll have to tune in!
--
Today’s interview is brought to you by YCharts. For a free trial and 15% discount on new memberships, visit https://go.ycharts.com/forward-guidance
--
Follow David Rosenberg on Twitter https://twitter.com/EconguyRosie
Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96
Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance
Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_
____
Timecodes:
(00:00) Introduction
(00:37) The Big Story Is What Happens Next Year
(09:27) Questioning The Higher For Longer Narrative
(20:20) What Causes A Recession?
(24:56) How Sensitive Is The Economy To Higher Interest Rates?
(35:34) We Haven't Felt The Full Impact Of Higher Interest Rates Yet
(42:02) The Politics Of Deficit Spending
(47:01) There Are Three Stages To Every Bear Market
(59:37) How Deep Will The Credit Crunch Be?
(01:06:56) Fitch's AAA Downgrade
(01:09:41) The Fed Has Overtightened
(01:14:12) The Manufacturing Cycle & Unemployment
(01:16:00) Where Will The Unemployment Rate Peak?
_____
Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
