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Xi Jinping and the Party Congress
I'm pretty agnostic on what this will mean. I certainly expect him to get the term and he will probably emerge somewhat more secure in power if the projections are accurate. But what that means in terms of China's domestic international behavior is a big question mark, go go in different directions. With the Party Congress behind him Xi Jinping can afford to take more risks, but those risks don't necessarily need to be using force against Taiwan. That could also be moving away from zero COVID,. not requiring that demonstrations of competence or performance or strength in the immediate term. And so that could also create space for a somewhat different trajectory.