In the conventional telling, some one raises an alarm and everyone jumps up and does something about it. In reality warnings are likely to be heard when they are made by someone who's part of our inn group. Phil tatlock is a psychologist at the university of pennsylvania. He explores how we can learn from these people to become better forecasters. After the break, why you don't need cassandra like vision to predict what's to come. You're listening to hidden brain. I'm shanker ve danten. And millions of people feel like throwing things at the television set each evening as they listen to pundits explain the day's news.