Gold cycle framework and Fed timing

Stijn Schmitz welcomes Chris Rutherglen to the show. Chris Rutherglen is PhD Scientist/Engineer, Level 3 CFA, and publisher ‘The Gold Investor Research’ Substack. Chris provides a comprehensive analysis of gold and silver market cycles, utilizing a scientific approach to forecasting price movements. He explains that gold typically moves through distinct cycles, with particular focus on the current “rate cut period” and potential future “quantitative easing (QE) period”. Using sophisticated analytical tools, he tracks gold’s price movements relative to the Federal Reserve’s interest rate changes and monetary supply.

Rutherglen suggests gold is approaching its fifth intermediate cycle high, with a potential target range of $4,900 to $5,200. However, he believes the market may extend to a sixth intermediate cycle, potentially reaching around $6,700. Looking further ahead, he proposes a more dramatic long-term projection of gold potentially reaching $24,000 in the 2030s, based on historical debt-to-money supply ratios. For silver, Rutherglen applies similar analytical methods, projecting potential prices around $840, though he emphasizes these are speculative estimates based on current monetary trends. He notes that silver’s current price, while seeming high, is relatively consistent with historical inflation-adjusted prices.

Chris highlights several key indicators for tracking these cycles, including call and put option volumes, central bank purchases, and the relationship between gold prices and moving averages. He stresses that a true QE period would likely require significant economic stress, prompting substantial monetary intervention. His analysis suggests the current gold bull market still has potential room to grow, with the most significant gains potentially occurring during the future QE period. Rutherglen recommends investors remain attentive to economic indicators and be prepared for potential market shifts. Listeners can find more detailed analysis on his Gold Investor Research Substack, where he provides weekly updates and in-depth reports on precious metals market cycles.

Timestamps:
00:00:00 – Introduction
00:00:51 – Gold Cycle Position Overview
00:06:11 – Rate Cut Period Dynamics
00:08:16 – Mid-Cycle Level Explained
00:12:40 – Government Debt Impact
00:18:04 – Sixth Intermediate Cycle
00:22:25 – Market Indicators Analysis
00:25:35 – Gold Price Targets
00:30:18 – Options Volume Insights
00:33:21 – East-West Gold Flows
00:36:05 – Central Bank Purchases
00:37:48 – Bull Run Projections
00:40:06 – Silver Price Analysis
00:48:01 – Concluding Thoughts

Guest Links:
Substack: https://giresearch.substack.com
X: https://x.com/CRutherglen

Chris Rutherglen is a private investor whose primary occupation is in science & engineering with a focus on novel semiconductor devices for microwave and mm-wave applications. He began investing in the precious metal space in 2003 and has done well following a value-oriented investment approach. Although he has never been employed in the finance/investment field professionally, he did complete level 3 of the Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) program in 2011. Chris has a BS in physics from the California Institute of Technology and a Ph.D. in Electrical Computer Engineering from the University of California, Irvin