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“Soft Landing” Very Unlikely As Global Inflation Crisis Rages On | Darius Dale & Juliette Declercq
Forward Guidance
The Fed Funds Rate: 3.9%?
Before the Russia-Ukraine war, my view was that US rates needed to get above 4% before you were going to be able to slow down inflation. In the meantime, global growth has strongly desynchronized. And I now expect the strengths of the dollar and much weaker stocks to actually do part of the job that rates should have been doing. So even if we are close to price 4% now in terms of like terminal rate, I actually don't think that will be delivered.
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