GM57: Navigating the Next Decade ft. Kiril Sokoloff
Top Traders Unplugged
Advice for becoming better informed on global macro and investing
The guest emphasizes the importance of studying financial history and warns about the dangers of free money, low interest rates, and the consequences of debt. They discuss how risk is not properly priced into a lot of debt and how this could lead to problems in the future.
Legendary strategist Kiril Sokoloff, founder and Chairman of 13D Research, joins Alan Dunne in this episode for a whirlwind tour of where Kiril sees the risks and opportunities in global markets over the next decade. Kiril outlines the reasons behind his belief that the secular bull market in bonds is over and a secular bear market is now underway. They discuss implications of climate change decarbonisation, the ageing global economy, rising debt levels and the growing risk of a significant derailment of the global economy from protectionism. Kiril explains why he is bullish oil, copper, uranium and gold and why gold mining stocks are the cheapest asset on the planet and his top contrarian call. They discuss China’s current economic challenges and why Kiril remains upbeat on the longer-term outlook for China and Chinese stocks but why there may be even greater opportunities in India.
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Episode TimeStamps:
02:31 - Introduction to Kiril Sokoloff
05:21 - Are we heading back to "normal"?
11:17 - Will China become an inflationary force?
14:30 - Is China still investable?
17:05 - A Chinese confidence crisis
18:45 - The outlook for inflation from a historical perspective
23:13 - What is going on in the oil market?
25:45 - What drives the shift towards solar energy in China?
27:57 - The move towards nuclear energy
29:55 - U.S vs. Europe vs. China
33:12 - How to position for the next 20 years
35:12 - Why is Sokoloff a fan of gold?
39:13 - A move away from the dollar
44:50 - Understanding the gold market
49:05 - How will AI impact the economy?
51:30 - India - the next China?
53:34 - How will the decarbonization evolve?
55:38 - Sokoloff's favorite contrarian calls
57:50 - Sokoloff's process for generation ideas
59:24 - Advice for other investors
02:02:03 - Thanks for listening
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