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Bullishness Approaching Mania | Peter Atwater on Market Psychology And “The Confidence Map”
Forward Guidance
The Cost of Low Interest Rates
I don't believe that the crowd, when the crowd behaves, is at all capable or interested in that level of complexity. I believe fundamentally, the crowds can only use system one thinking, our simplest laziest bots. And so while there may be groups of investors who rely very heavily on free cash flows and discounted values, the crowd isn't really going to move one way or the other based on those changes. What we saw in 2022 was a concurrent drop in sentiment in both stocks and bonds whose stories then fed upon itself.
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