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Surveillance: Flying Blind with Bryson

Bloomberg Surveillance

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The Distress Stories That You Need to Watch About

The US doesn't qualify for an emerging market, but certainly what we're seeing right now with this default talk and the lack of consensus on how to manage the fiscal situation is raising some red flags. I have a simple EM test. Go something like this: If things get bad in that country, do you buy or sell the debt? It's as simple as that. And so markets are trading it that way. The assumption is if you do get a technical default, it's going to be a short-lived story and might tip the economy into recession.

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