How to Avoid the Hindsight Bias in Product Development

If you're developing an expensive new product, say it's going to cost you several million dollars. If its prospects for success are not guaranteed, how small are they? Even if the chances are low, just a 10% chance of a big success, the company should want to take that risk. When employees make smart risky bets on which they get unlucky, not firing them, but rewarding them instead.