Why cash flow matters

In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with Victoria Greene of G Squared Private Wealth for a wide-ranging conversation on markets, macro risk, portfolio construction, and how investors should think about 2026 and beyond. Victoria brings a pragmatic, risk-aware framework to investing, blending top-down macro analysis with bottom-up fundamentals, technicals, and a strong focus on cash flow, diversification, and policy risk. We cover everything from the rise of what she calls a badger market, to AI capex, market concentration, inflation risk, and why policy error, not valuation, is what historically ends bull markets.

Main topics covered
• Why valuation is a poor market timing tool and what actually ends bull markets
• The concept of a badger market and how investors should mentally prepare for volatility
• Cash flow never lies and how Victoria evaluates business quality
• Diversification in 2026 and why international, commodities, and value matter more now
• Risks and opportunities in the labor market, AI-driven disruption, and productivity
• The K-shaped economy and what it means for consumers and corporate earnings
• 60/40 portfolios, alternatives, and where commodities fit today
• AI investing from infrastructure to software and cybersecurity
• Yield curve dynamics, inflation risk, and portfolio positioning
• Active vs passive investing in a concentrated market
• How policy decisions and election dynamics influence markets

Timestamps
00:00 Intro and why valuation does not kill bull markets
01:40 Investment philosophy and macro first portfolio construction
06:00 Cash flow never lies explained
07:40 Diversification beyond US large caps
10:00 Market expectations and big tech earnings risk
11:00 What is a badger market
12:40 Is the 60 40 portfolio dead
15:00 Why Victoria remains constructive on markets
18:00 Politics, sentiment, and market noise
21:00 Policy error vs valuation as the real risk
26:40 The K-shaped economy and consumer health
31:10 Hard data vs soft data disconnect
34:10 Labor market risks and data reliability
36:40 Yield curve steepening and inflation risk
41:40 Portfolio positioning in a higher inflation world
43:00 How to invest in AI beyond the Mag 7
47:20 Where we are in the AI cycle
49:30 Active management challenges and opportunities
53:00 Valuation, planning, and long-term return expectations