TIP 065 : Yale Professor, Robert Shiller's Book, Irrational Exuberance (Investing Podcast)
We Study Billionaires - The Investor’s Podcast Network
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Six New Eras and Bubbles Around the World
Schiller: When you look at a company's margin, it's actually a very good indicator of how the market's performed over the last ten to 20 years than an expectation moving forward. With a 60 basis point movement down with margins, it has always been a precursor, in the last, like, 20 years, to a recession that's coming. And right now we're actually seeing that with margins on the income statement. This has usually been a pre indicator by about 15 to 18 months before the recession actually occurs. We're about, i want to say, ten to 15 months from where margins peaked. They peeked it around 12 %, and now they're, i think they
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