What is going on with the economy right now?

There are a lot of mixed signals. President Trump slashed taxes, but he’s also bringing in a lot of money through tariffs. Inflation is creeping up, but the stock market keeps rising. Eye-wateringly large investments are flowing to A.I., which could lead to an explosion of productivity but also mass job loss. And then Trump fired the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics after a disappointing jobs report, raising concerns that the government’s data on the economy might get shakier.

Natasha Sarin is the president and a founder of the Budget Lab at Yale. She has been tracking these trends and modeling the potential economic effects of many of Trump’s policies. I invited her on the show to walk through what she is thinking about the economy.

Mentioned:

“The Tariffs Kicked In. The Sky Didn’t Fall. Were the Economists Wrong?” by Jason Furman

“Does the Stock Market Know Something We Don’t?” by Rogé Karma

Book Recommendations:

Showdown at Gucci Gulch by Alan Murray

Remarkably Bright Creatures by Shelby Van Pelt

The Undoing Project by Michael Lewis

Thoughts? Guest suggestions? Email us at ezrakleinshow@nytimes.com.

You can find the transcript and more episodes of “The Ezra Klein Show” at nytimes.com/ezra-klein-podcast. Book recommendations from all our guests are listed at https://www.nytimes.com/article/ezra-klein-show-book-recs.html

This episode of “The Ezra Klein Show” was produced by Rollin Hu. Fact-checking by Michelle Harris. Our senior engineer is Jeff Geld, with additional mixing by Aman Sahota. Our executive producer is Claire Gordon. The show’s production team also includes Marie Cascione, Annie Galvin, Elias Isquith, Kristin Lin, Jack McCordick, Marina King and Jan Kobal. Original music by Aman Sahota, Carole Sabouraud and Pat McCusker. Audience strategy by Kristina Samulewski and Shannon Busta. The director of New York Times Opinion Audio is Annie-Rose Strasser. Special thanks to Katharine Abraham, Skanda Amarnath, Kimberly Clausing, Kathryn Anne Edwards, Matthew Klein, and Claudia Sahm.

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Showdown at Gucci Gulch

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