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The Keys to the White House

A Surefire Guide to Predicting the Next President
Book • 2005
Allan Lichtman presents thirteen true/false propositions—four political, seven performance, and two personality keys—that have accurately forecasted every U.S.

presidential election since 1860.

Developed with Vladimir Keilis-Borok using pattern recognition techniques, the model favors the incumbent party if five or fewer keys are false, otherwise the challenger wins.

The book applies the keys chronologically through American history, challenging conventional wisdom on what determines electoral success.

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Mentioned in 1 episodes

Mentioned by Elijah Cohn as the winner from the polling category in the previous Pundies show.
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The 2025 Pundies: Highs & Lows from a Long Year

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